What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Bulgaria and 1.6 from Iceland, so Iceland come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Iceland or Draw. This covers Iceland or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Bulgaria have won one of their last four.
✓Iceland are unbeaten in their last four — two wins and two draws.
Recent results
3 Oct 2026Iceland 3 - 0 Bulgaria
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