What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from China and 0.9 from Tajikistan, so China come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
China come into this on two straight defeats. Tajikistan come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: China or Draw. This covers China or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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