Honduras v Jamaica prediction

What to expect

Honduras host Jamaica in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 6 October. Honduras sit fourth of six with three points from three games and a –1 goal difference. One place above them sits Guatemala with a point more, while Martinique sit just below on the same points. Jamaica are second, on six points and a +2 goal difference, a place ahead of Suriname and two behind Guatemala. Both teams have played only three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor. The two sides are close in the table, but the numbers show Honduras as the stronger side, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.

Honduras have had a mixed run in their last three matches. They lost 2-1 away to Martinique, then turned the tables by beating Jamaica 1-0 away, and most recently fell 3-2 at home to Suriname. In those three games they have scored four goals and let in five, keeping only one clean sheet. Two of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in both of those games. The recent loss at home means they come into this fixture on a short turnaround after just three days.

Jamaica arrive on the back of two wins and one defeat. Their latest outing was a 2-0 away victory over El Salvador, before a 1-0 home loss to Honduras and a 3-2 home win over Guatemala. Over the three games they have scored five goals and conceded three, also keeping a single clean sheet and being shut out once. The win in El Salvador showed they can win without conceding, while the narrow loss to Honduras highlighted how fine the margins can be. Like Honduras, they have only had three days to recover.

When the two have met before, the games have been close, with each side able to score. The recent 1-0 win for Honduras over Jamaica suggests a pattern of low-scoring, tightly contested matches. Given the goal expectations – 1.2 for Honduras and 1.0 for Jamaica – we expect another game with few chances and at most a couple of goals in total. Both teams have shown they can score but also that they can be stopped, so a cautious, defensive approach is likely.

Our pick is Honduras or a draw. The price of 1.27 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a little extra safety. We think Honduras have a 73 % chance to score at all and a 35 % chance to hit twice, while Jamaica have a 62 % chance to find the net and a 24 % chance to score more than once. The odds of our selection succeeding sit at about 74 % in our view. For this to go wrong, Jamaica would need to win outright or the match would have to finish with no goals at all, both of which seem less likely given the recent form of both sides.

Recent meetings