How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Portugal or Draw 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Denmark host Portugal in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. Both teams sit near the top of their group, each looking to secure the two points needed to guarantee promotion. Portugal sit a place above Denmark in the table, but the gap is small enough that a win for the Danes would keep the race alive. The numbers show Portugal as the slightly stronger side, with an average of 1.5 goals per game compared with Denmark’s 1.3. Both sides are likely to find the net – Denmark have a 73 % chance to score and Portugal a 77 % chance – so we can expect an open encounter.
Denmark have come into this fixture on a mixed run. They beat Finland 2-1 at home, then travelled to beat Norway 3-2. Their next game was a 1-1 draw with Sweden, followed by a 2-0 win over Croatia. In their last two matches they have scored five goals and kept only one clean sheet. The run adds up to four wins, one draw and one loss, with a total goal difference of +5. The recent form shows a side that can score and defend well enough to stay unbeaten in five of six games.
Portugal’s recent form has been more volatile. They began with a 4-1 victory over Kilmarnock, then suffered a 3-0 defeat to Celtic. After that they beat Belgium 2-1 and drew 0-0 with Spain. Their most recent match was a 2-2 draw against Italy, where they recovered from a 0-2 deficit to level the game in the second half. That comeback demonstrates Portugal’s ability to score late and to keep the pressure on opponents even when behind. In the last five games they have two wins, two draws and one loss, scoring eight goals while conceding four.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been tight and often decided by a single goal. The pattern suggests a balanced contest where both teams create chances, but Portugal usually have the edge in quality. Given the goal averages and the scoring probabilities, we can expect at least one goal from each side, with the chance of a high-scoring finish around 30 %. The match is likely to be open, with Denmark pushing for an early lead and Portugal relying on their slightly higher scoring rate to take control.
Our pick is Portugal or a draw. The price of 1.31 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, which makes it an attractive option. It covers a Portuguese win and also protects us if the teams share the points. For this pick to fail, Denmark would need to win outright, which is less likely given Portugal’s higher goal average and the 67 % chance we assign to the pick succeeding. The price looks good and the safety net of the draw makes it a sensible way to back the lean without demanding an exact result.
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