How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Denmark (Draw No Bet) 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Denmark host Wales in a UEFA Nations League clash on 27 September 2026. Both teams sit in the same group, but the numbers show a clear gap. Denmark are expected to score about two goals, while Wales average less than one. The chance of Denmark finding the net at all is very high – 88 % – and they are likely to hit the back of the net twice or more in 61 % of their games. Wales, on the other hand, only have a 50 % chance of scoring and just a 15 % chance of scoring twice. Those figures tell us that Denmark are the stronger side on paper, and a win looks the most probable outcome.
Our pick is Denmark on a draw-no-bet basis. The price offered is 1.15, which is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so the price looks good. With an 83 % chance of our view being right, the bet only loses if Denmark are beaten outright. For the pick to go wrong, Wales would need to keep a clean sheet and then score at least once, or pull off a surprise win. Anything else – a Denmark win or a draw – means the stake is returned. In short, Denmark should dominate, and the draw-no-bet option gives us a safety net while still taking advantage of the strong odds.
Recent results
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