Dominica v Guyana: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Guyana to win 65%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Dominica host Guyana in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. The match is a chance for both teams to add points and improve their standing in the league. Dominica will be looking to prove they can compete at this level, while Guyana arrive as the clear favorite on paper. The numbers suggest an open game, with chances at both ends of the pitch. Both sides have a good chance of finding the net, but Guyana’s figures are higher, indicating they should be the side to finish with more goals.

Dominica have been busy in recent weeks. They beat Saint Lucia 2-1, then drew 0-0 with Grenada, and followed that with a 1-1 stalemate against Antigua. Those three games give them a total of three goals scored and two conceded. The run shows they can keep a clean sheet but also that they struggle to score more than one goal per match. Their recent form suggests they will be cautious but still capable of getting on the scoresheet against a stronger opponent.

Guyana come into the game on a stronger run. They opened with a 3-0 win over Belize, then edged a 2-1 victory against Suriname, and most recently beat Trinidad and Tobago 4-2. In that last match they scored four times while conceding two, showing they can create plenty of chances and also keep the opposition at bay. The four-goal haul underlines their attacking confidence, and the two goals they allowed indicate they are not immune to a reply. Overall they have netted nine goals and let in three in the last three fixtures.

We back Guyana to win. The price of 1.24 is shorter than what our reading of the numbers suggests, but it still offers a sensible return for a side that is expected to score about two goals while Dominica are likely to manage just over one. Our chance of this pick being right sits at 64 %. For Guyana to fail, they would need to be shut out completely and allow Dominica to score twice, something that the statistics make unlikely. All things considered, backing Guyana outright is the straightforward way to go.