What to expect
Ecuador have been on a decent run in their last few games. They beat Bolivia 2-1, then drew 1-1 with Uruguay and followed that with a 3-0 win over Chile. That string of results gives them six goals scored and two conceded in three matches. The side looks comfortable in attack and has kept the back line fairly tight.
Panama’s recent form has been mixed. They lost 3-0 to Costa Rica, then managed a 2-2 draw with Honduras before edging a 1-0 victory over Belize. Across those three games they have scored three goals and let in five. The most recent result, the 1-0 win over Belize, showed they can grind out a narrow success when they manage to keep a clean sheet.
When the two teams have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs. Both sides have struggled to find the net against each other, and the matches have usually been decided by a single goal. Given the numbers we have, this encounter looks set to follow that pattern – a modest number of chances and a good chance that only one side will break the deadlock.
Our pick is Ecuador to win. The goal expectations put Ecuador at about 1.6 goals per game while Panama sit at roughly 0.7. That translates to a roughly 65 % chance of an Ecuador victory, which matches our own view of the game. The price on offer is 1.73, which is longer than we think the match is worth. At that price, a win for Ecuador looks like the cleanest way to get a return. For the pick to go wrong, Panama would need to find the net twice or more, something that only has about a 12 % chance, or Ecuador would have to be shut out, which is unlikely at an 82 % chance of them scoring at all. If either of those unlikely things happens, the result could turn out differently, but the odds favour Ecuador.
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