What to expect
Uganda host DR Congo in a friendly on 5 October 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their recent international calendars, with the result having little impact on qualification. The match is a chance for coaches to test players, but the numbers still show DR Congo as the stronger side. Uganda have been unbeaten in their last three games, while DR Congo have won two and lost one. The stakes are modest, yet pride and a chance to finish the mini-tour on a high note are on the line.
Uganda come into this game on the back of two straight wins. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 victory away against DR Congo, followed by a 1-0 win at home over Libya. Before that they drew 1-1 away to Tunisia. In those three matches they have scored four goals and let in just one. They kept two clean sheets and none of the games produced three or more goals, although both sides scored in the Tunisia draw. The side has had a short three-day turnaround since their last match.
DR Congo also have a three-game run, but it is a mixed one. They suffered a 2-0 defeat at home to Uganda, then bounced back with a 2-1 away win over Zimbabwe and a 2-0 home win over Equatorial Guinea. Across the three fixtures they have scored four goals and conceded three. They kept one clean sheet and were shut out in the loss to Uganda. One of the games featured three goals, and both teams scored in the win over Zimbabwe. Like Uganda, they are playing again after only three days.
The two sides have already met in the most recent of those games, when Uganda turned the tables and beat DR Congo 2-0 away. That result suggests a tight encounter when the teams are evenly matched. The numbers point to a low-scoring affair – the expected total is just two goals, with Uganda averaging 0.8 and DR Congo 1.3. Uganda have a 52 % chance to find the net at all and only a 17 % chance to score twice, while DR Congo have a 74 % chance to score and a 38 % chance to hit two goals. Expect a cautious game with few chances.
Our pick is DR Congo or a draw. The price of 1.24 sits close to our reading of the match and gives a good return for the risk. We think DR Congo are slightly more likely to avoid defeat, but Uganda’s recent form means a draw is possible. The price looks good and our chance of this selection succeeding is about 81 %. For it to go wrong, Uganda would have to win outright, which would require them to break their low-scoring pattern and score at least two goals while keeping DR Congo from scoring.
Recent meetings
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