What to expect
Japan host New Zealand in an international friendly on 5 October 2026. Both teams are using the match to give playing time to squad members, so the result will not affect qualification or tournament placement. In the statistical picture Japan are the clear favourite, with an expected 2.7 goals compared with New Zealand’s 0.9. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, but Japan are far more likely to find the net. The odds offered at 1.22 sit close to our own view of the contest.
We back Japan to win. The chance of Japan scoring at least once is 94 per cent and the chance of scoring twice or more is 77 per cent. New Zealand’s chances are lower – a 50 per cent chance to score at all and only a 16 per cent chance to hit two goals. Our own assessment puts Japan’s probability of winning at about 82 per cent, which matches the price nicely. The pick looks clean because Japan dominate the goal expectations and the price is attractive. For the upset to happen, New Zealand would need to score early and keep a tight defence, limiting Japan to a single goal – a scenario that looks unlikely given the figures.
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