What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from El Salvador and 1.4 from Paraguay, so Paraguay come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Paraguay come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Paraguay to win. Paraguay shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.4), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.20, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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