Germany v Greece: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Germany to win 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Germany host Greece in a UEFA Nations League clash on 27 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their groups, each looking to pull ahead and secure a better spot for the next round. A win for Germany would push them closer to the top, while Greece would need the three points to keep their hopes alive. The numbers show Germany as the stronger side, averaging 2.2 goals per game compared with Greece’s 1.0. That gap makes Germany the clear favourite, but the figures also suggest an open game with chances at both ends. The stakes are high enough for both sides to give their all, and the result could shape the final table positions.

When the two sides have met before, the matches have tended to produce goals on both sides. The goal expectations of 2.2 for Germany and 1.0 for Greece add up to just over three goals in total, indicating that we should expect a game with several scoring opportunities. Germany have a 90 percent chance of finding the net at least once, and a 65 percent chance of scoring twice or more. Greece are also likely to get on the scoresheet, with a 61 percent chance of scoring at all and a 24 percent chance of hitting the net twice. The blend of a high scoring probability for Germany and a decent chance for Greece points to a match that could see both teams create chances and possibly trade blows.

Our pick is Germany to win. We see a 66 percent chance of that outcome and the price on offer is 1.42, which is shorter than what we think the game is worth. The numbers back up our view: Germany’s expected 2.2 goals versus Greece’s 1.0 makes a German victory the cleaner play. The price looks good for a side that should dominate the match. For the pick to go wrong, Greece would need to score early and keep Germany from finding a second goal, or they would have to hold out and win on a narrow margin. If Germany fail to convert their high chance of scoring twice, the result could be tighter than expected. As it stands, backing Germany to come out on top is the most sensible choice.