Germany v Serbia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Germany to win 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Germany host Serbia in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. Germany sit higher in the table and will be looking to keep the gap to the teams above them, while Serbia are fighting to stay clear of the relegation places. Both sides need points, but the gap between them in the standings is clear. The numbers show Germany as the stronger side, with an expectation of about 2.6 goals compared with Serbia’s 0.9. That suggests an open game with chances at both ends.

Germany have been busy of late. They beat Italy 3-1, then drew 2-2 with France and followed that with a 4-0 win over the Netherlands. Those three results give them a run of two wins and a draw, scoring nine goals while conceding three. The run shows they can find the net often and keep clean sheets when they are at home.

Serbia’s recent form has been mixed. They lost 1-0 to Croatia, then beat Belgium 2-1, and most recently fell 3-0 to Celtic. The Celtic defeat was a heavy loss, with Serbia failing to score and conceding three without reply. That result caps a three-game spell that includes one win, one narrow loss and a heavy defeat, leaving them with three goals scored and four conceded.

When the two teams have met before, the games have usually been tight, with both sides creating chances. Given the goal expectations of 2.6 for Germany and 0.9 for Serbia, we expect a similar pattern this time – Germany likely to dominate possession and create more chances, but Serbia still able to threaten on the break. The chance of Germany scoring at all is very high, and the chance they score twice or more is also strong. Serbia’s chance of scoring is lower, and scoring twice is unlikely.

Our pick is Germany to win. The price of 1.27 matches our view of the game. We think Germany have about a 79 % chance to come out on top, which aligns with our own 77 % confidence. The price looks good for a side that is expected to score more than twice and is unlikely to be held back. The pick would go wrong if Serbia manage to keep a clean sheet and score the only goal, or if Germany fail to find the net at all, both of which are low-probability events.