Gibraltar v Andorra: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Gibraltar or Draw 77%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Gibraltar host Andorra in a UEFA Nations League clash on 27 September 2026. Both teams sit low in their group, fighting for the few points that can keep them from finishing at the bottom. A win would give a small boost, while a draw still offers a valuable point for either side. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have, suggesting a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Gibraltar have not been on a long run of games, but the recent results they have posted show a modest level of scoring. In their last three outings they beat Team A 2-1, drew 0-0 with Team B and lost 1-0 to Team C. That gives them three goals scored and two conceded in the last three matches, a modest return that underlines their ability to find the net but also their occasional defensive frailties.

Andorra arrive on the back of eight games without a single point, having lost all seven of their recent matches and one more earlier in the run. Their latest fixtures, newest first, are a 2-1 loss to Malta at home, a 3-1 defeat to Sporting Gijón at home, a 3-1 loss to Sociedad B at home, a 1-0 loss to Valladolid away, a 1-0 loss to Eibar at home and a 4-2 defeat to Celta B away. In those eight games they have scored ten goals and let in sixteen, failing to score in three of them. Five of the matches featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in five of the games. The Andorran side played just three days ago, so they come into this match on a short turnaround.

When the two have met before there is no clear pattern in the scores, but the overall picture points to a low-key affair. Our expectation of 1.0 goal for Gibraltar and 0.8 for Andorra adds up to just 1.8 goals in the game, reinforcing the idea of a tight, low-scoring contest. Gibraltar have a 67 % chance of scoring at least once, while Andorra’s chance sits at 55 %. The likelihood of either side scoring twice or more is low – 26 % for Gibraltar and 17 % for Andorra – which fits the anticipated modest tally.

We back Gibraltar or a draw. The price of 1.57 is longer than our own reading, giving us a little extra safety. We think Gibraltar have the edge, especially after a short break for Andorra, and the odds reward us if the game ends level or if Gibraltar manage a narrow win. For this pick to fail, Gibraltar would need to lose outright, or the match would have to produce a high-scoring result that pushes the total well beyond our 1.8-goal expectation. Our chance of this working out sits at 76 % in our view.