Greece v Netherlands: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Netherlands or Draw 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Greece host the Netherlands in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. Both sides are in the same group, but the exact table positions are not known to us. What we do know is that the Netherlands are the stronger side according to the numbers we have. They are expected to score more, with an average of 1.6 goals compared with Greece’s 1.2. The game should produce just under three goals in total, 2.9 on average. Both teams have a good chance of finding the net – Greece are expected to score in 70 % of matches and the Dutch in 81 %. The odds of either side scoring twice or more are also clear: 33 % for Greece and 49 % for the Netherlands.

Looking at the broader picture, the Netherlands have a higher probability of scoring at least once and of scoring twice. That gives them a clear edge in the expected goal tally. Greece, however, are not a team that will sit back. With a 70 % chance of scoring at all, they are likely to test the Dutch defence at least once. The chance of a high-scoring game is modest, but the combined expectation of 2.9 goals suggests that both sides will create chances. If the match follows the averages, we could see a 2-1 or 2-2 result, with the Dutch edging it.

Our pick is the Netherlands or a draw. The price on offer is 1.33, which sits close to our own reading of the game. This selection gives us a safety net – if the Dutch win outright we are right, and if the game ends level we are also covered. It is a sensible way to back the slight lean towards the Netherlands without needing to predict the exact scoreline. We feel confident about this choice, putting our chance of it landing at 74 % out of 100.

For this pick to go wrong, two things would have to happen. First, Greece would need to keep a clean sheet and also limit the Netherlands to a single goal, turning the match into a 0-0 or 1-0 win for the hosts. Second, the Netherlands would have to fail to score at all, which is unlikely given their 81 % chance of finding the net. If either of those low-probability events occurs, the bet would lose. Otherwise, the price looks good and the odds match what we expect from the two sides.