Israel v Kosovo: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Israel or Draw 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Israel host Kosovo in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, each looking to pull ahead of the rivals above them and keep the teams below at bay. A win for either side would move them a step closer to the promotion spots, while a slip could see them dragged into a relegation battle. The tables are tight, and the points difference between the two is minimal, so the match feels like a small final for the group.

Israel have been in decent form lately. In their last three games they beat Malta 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Georgia and followed that with a 3-2 win over Cyprus. Those results give them six points from the last three outings and a total of six goals scored while conceding three. The run shows they can find the net and also keep the opposition from scoring too often.

Kosovo’s recent run is equally balanced. They opened with a 1-0 victory over Albania, then suffered a 2-2 draw with Bosnia and a 0-0 stalemate against Slovenia. The most recent match, the 2-2 draw with Bosnia, saw both sides create chances and trade blows throughout the 90 minutes. Kosovo left the game with two points, having scored two goals and let in two, a pattern that suggests they can both attack and defend in equal measure.

When the two sides have met before the games have been tight affairs, with both teams managing to score. The numbers we have for this meeting point to an open contest, with both sides likely to find the net. Israel have an 81 per cent chance of scoring at all and a 49 per cent chance of getting two or more goals. Kosovo’s chances are similar, 77 per cent to score and 43 per cent to hit twice. Expect a game with chances on both ends and a possible finish around three goals in total.

We back Israel or a draw at 1.63. The price is longer than what we think the game will produce, which makes it a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact scoreline. Our chance of this selection being right sits at 67 per cent. For it to go wrong, Israel would have to lose outright, or the match would need to finish with a clean-sheet win for Kosovo. As long as Israel keep a clean sheet or the game ends level, the pick should hold.