Israel v Republic of Ireland: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Israel or Draw 69%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Israel host the Republic of Ireland in a UEFA Nations League clash on 27 September 2026. The match is being played on Israeli soil, and both sides will be looking to add points to their league campaign. With no further detail on the table, the game simply offers each nation a chance to improve its standing and keep the momentum going in the competition.

Israel come into the encounter with a strong likelihood of finding the net. The chance they will score at least once sits at 77 percent, and the probability of a double-figure effort is 42 percent. Their expected goal total of 1.5 reflects a modest but steady attacking output. The Republic of Ireland are not far behind; they have a 72 percent chance of scoring and a 36 percent chance of scoring twice, with an expected 1.3 goals. Together the two sides are projected to produce just under three goals, a total of 2.8, suggesting a game where both attacks will have opportunities but defensive solidity could keep the scoreline tight.

When we look at the numbers, the balance tilts slightly toward the home side. Israel’s higher probability of scoring and a marginally larger expected goal tally give them a small edge. The odds on offer – 1.47 for an Israel or draw result – sit close to our own reading of the match. By backing Israel or the draw we are covering the most likely outcomes without committing to a single result. This approach gives us a safety net: a win for Israel or a stalemate both satisfy the bet.

Our pick is Israel or Draw at 1.47. We feel the price is attractive because it matches the narrow advantage we see in the figures. The chance of this selection succeeding is 69 percent, which aligns with the underlying scoring probabilities. For the bet to go wrong, Ireland would need to win outright, something that would require them to outperform their 72 percent chance of scoring and exceed the 36 percent chance of netting twice. As long as the game stays close and Israel manages at least one goal, the selection should hold.