Lithuania v Andorra prediction

What to expect

Lithuania host Andorra in a friendly on 30 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads rather than chase points, but the table still shows a clear gap. Lithuania sit higher in the rankings and are rated as the stronger side. The odds reflect that – the price of 1.16 is very close to what we think the game will look like. A draw would still be a decent result for the visitors, while a Lithuanian win would be the most likely outcome.

Lithuania’s recent form has been mixed but steady. In their last three fixtures they beat Latvia 2-1, drew 0-0 with Estonia and lost 1-2 to Finland. Those three games give them one win, one draw and one loss, with four goals scored and three conceded. The run shows they can find the net but also that they are not scoring many. Their defence has been fairly solid, keeping two clean sheets in the last five matches.

Andorra have struggled over their last eight games, whether at home or away. The most recent results, newest first, are a 0-0 draw with Gibraltar away, a 3-2 win over Granada away, a 2-1 loss to Malta at home, a 3-1 loss to Sporting Gijón at home, a 3-1 loss to Sociedad B at home and a 1-0 defeat to Valladolid away. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in sixteen. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in three matches. Their last four away games give them one win, one draw and two defeats, showing they can pick up points on the road but are far from consistent. They played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

When the two sides have met before, the games have usually produced several goals, with both teams finding the net in five of the eight encounters. This time the numbers point to a tighter affair. Lithuania’s expected 1.1 goals versus Andorra’s 0.5 suggests a low-scoring match. The chance of Lithuania scoring at least once is 69 %, while Andorra’s chance to score at all is only 38 %. Both teams are unlikely to score twice – 29 % for Lithuania and just 8 % for Andorra. All signs point to a single goal or a goalless draw.

We back Lithuania or the draw. The price of 1.16 matches our view that Lithuania are the favorites but that a draw is still plausible in a friendly where both coaches may rotate players. Our chance of being right is 87 % according to our own reading. For this pick to go wrong, Lithuania would have to be shut out and Andorra would need to score, or the game would have to finish with a clear Lithuanian win while the price only covers a draw. In either case the risk is low, and the price offers a sensible way to back the lean without demanding an exact scoreline.