Papua New Guinea v Solomon Islands prediction

What to expect

Papua New Guinea host the Solomon Islands in an international friendly on 30 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to fine-tune their squads rather than chase points, but the standings still give a clue to the shape of the game. Papua New Guinea sit higher in the unofficial hierarchy, reflected in the goal forecasts that give them an average of two goals compared with 1.5 for the Solomon Islands. The price on the win for the home side is 2.90, a little longer than our own reading of the contest. In a friendly the result matters less than in a qualifier, yet the two sides will still want to finish on a positive note and show the depth of their squads.

Our pick is Papua New Guinea to win. The numbers put the hosts ahead, and we see about a 55 % chance of them coming out on top. The price of 2.90 is attractive because it pays out well if the stronger side does what the figures suggest. The game is likely to be open, with chances at both ends. Papua New Guinea have an 88 % chance of scoring at least once and a 62 % chance of finding the net twice or more. The Solomon Islands are not far behind, with a 74 % chance of scoring and a 39 % chance of getting two goals. If the match follows the statistical outline, we expect a modestly high-scoring encounter, perhaps a 2-1 or 3-2 result in favour of the hosts.

For our prediction to go wrong, the Solomon Islands would need to exceed their usual scoring probability and keep a clean sheet against Papua New Guinea. That would require the visitors to turn a 39 % chance of scoring twice into a reality while denying the home side any goal, something that the figures do not favour. If the match turns into a defensive stalemate, the price would look too long. As long as the game stays open and both teams create chances, the odds of a Papua New Guinea win remain solid, making the 2.90 price a clean play for us.