Malta v Liechtenstein: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Malta to win 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Malta host Liechtenstein in an international friendly on 27 September 2026. Both teams are using the match to give players a chance to impress, as the result does not count toward any competition. In a friendly the coaches often rotate their squads, so the focus is on performance rather than points. Malta sit higher than Liechtenstein in the informal ranking of the two sides, and the numbers we have show a clear gap. Malta are expected to score about two goals on average, while Liechtenstein average just half a goal. The chance that Malta will find the net at all is very high – 89 out of 100 – and the chance they score twice or more sits at 61 out of 100. For Liechtenstein the odds of scoring are much lower, 36 out of 100, and the chance of a double is only 7 out of 100. This difference makes the game look like a test of Malta’s attacking edge against a side that will struggle to get on the scoresheet.

Our pick is Malta to win. We see the price of 1.30 as matching our own view of the game. Malta are the stronger side on the numbers, roughly 2.0 goals to 0.5 for Liechtenstein, and we put their chance of victory at about 78 per cent. The price is close to what we think the outcome will be, so it looks like a clean play. For the pick to go wrong, Malta would have to fail to score at all, which the data says happens only 11 times in a hundred, or they would need to be held to a single goal while Liechtenstein manages to score twice, an event the numbers put at just 7 out of a hundred. In short, the odds are in Malta’s favour and the price reflects that, making a Malta win the sensible choice.