Montenegro v Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction

What to expect

Montenegro host Bosnia and Herzegovina in an international friendly on 9 October 2026. Both teams sit near the top of their recent form tables, each unbeaten in their last four matches. The friendly means coaches will rotate squads, so the result does not affect qualification, but pride is still on the line. On the numbers, Bosnia and Herzegovina are the stronger side, with an expected 1.3 goals to Montenegro’s 1.1. The game is likely to see about two and a half goals in total, and both sides have a good chance of finding the net – 67 % for Montenegro and 73 % for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Montenegro come into this match on the back of a solid run: a 0-0 draw with Armenia at home, a 2-1 away win over Latvia, a 3-2 away victory against Armenia, and a 2-1 home win over Cyprus. That gives them three wins and a draw in the last four games, with seven goals scored and four conceded. They have kept one clean sheet and have been shut out once. Three of those four matches featured three or more goals, and in three games both sides scored. The side played just four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the unbeaten streak shows confidence.

Bosnia and Herzegovina also arrive unbeaten from their last four outings: a 1-0 home win over Poland, a 1-1 home draw with Sweden, a 4-2 away victory against Romania, and a 0-0 away draw with Poland. They have scored six goals and let in three, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score in one match. The most recent game, the 1-0 win over Poland, was a tight affair where they held on to a single goal to claim all three points. Like Montenegro, they played only four days earlier, meaning both teams will be on a short turnaround.

We back Bosnia and Herzegovina or a draw. The price of 1.24 is shorter than our own reading of the game, giving us a good safety net. Bosnia and Herzegovina are the slight favorites on the goal expectations and have a marginally higher chance of scoring. A draw would still be a sensible result for them given the tight nature of recent matches. For our pick to fail, Montenegro would need to win, which would require them to score twice and keep a clean sheet – an outcome that looks less likely given the numbers.