How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Benin or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Benin and 0.8 from Mauritania, so Benin come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Benin or Draw. This covers Benin or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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