Republic of Ireland v Austria: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Austria or Draw 68%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Republic of Ireland host Austria in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October 2026. The Irish sit in the middle of the table, while Austria sit a few places above them, making the game important for both sides. A win for Ireland could push them up a spot and keep them in the hunt for a promotion place. For Austria a victory would solidify their position and give them a cushion in the race for the top. The two teams are close in the standings, but the numbers we have suggest Austria are the stronger side. They are expected to score a little more than the Irish, with an average of 1.3 goals compared with 1.0 for the home side. Both teams are likely to find the net – the chance of Ireland scoring at all is 68 percent and Austria’s is 71 percent. There is also a decent chance that either side could score twice, 30 percent for Ireland and 33 percent for Austria. In total we expect about 2.3 goals in the game, so a fairly open contest is likely.

We think the safest way to back the game is to take Austria or a draw. The price on that option is 1.30, which is shorter than what we feel the game deserves. That means the price is a bit low, but it also gives us a wider safety net – we win if Austria take all three points or if the match ends level. Our own confidence in this outcome is 68 percent, which matches the chance we gave Austria of scoring. For the pick to go wrong, Ireland would have to win outright, or the game would need to finish with a very low score and the draw option would have to be excluded by a win for the Irish. As long as Austria can find the net and avoid a loss, the price looks good and the pick should hold up.