What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Serbia and 1.9 from Germany, so Germany come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Serbia come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Germany to win. Germany shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make them about 59% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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