How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Netherlands to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Serbia and 2.0 from Netherlands, so Netherlands come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Netherlands to win. Netherlands shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.0), and we make them about 63% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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