Wales v Norway: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Norway or Draw 78%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Wales host Norway in a UEFA Nations League clash on 1 October. Both teams are looking to improve their standing in the league, and the points on offer could shift the balance for either side. Norway come in as the clear statistical favourite, but the numbers also show a game with chances for both sides, so the encounter promises to be open and entertaining.

Wales have been in mixed form lately. They beat the Isle of Man 2-1, then suffered a 3-0 loss to Celtic and a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock. Those three results give them a total of three goals scored and eight conceded in the last three matches. The recent heavy defeats have left them vulnerable at the back, yet the win against the Isle of Man shows they can still find the net when they press.

Norway arrive on a better run. Their recent results include a 3-2 win over Finland, a 2-2 draw with Denmark and a 1-0 victory against Latvia. Across those three games they have scored six goals and let in just two. The most recent 1-0 win was a tight affair, with Norway holding on to a single goal after a hard-fought first half and then seeing out the match without reply. That clean sheet underlines their defensive solidity while the three-goal haul confirms they can create and finish chances.

When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest an open contest. Wales are expected to score about 1.1 goals, while Norway average 1.9. Both teams have a high chance of finding the net – 70 % for Wales and 85 % for Norway – and both are likely to score more than once, especially Norway with a 54 % chance of two or more goals. Our pick is Norway or a draw. The price of 1.13 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, so we back the lean by covering both a Norwegian win and a draw. The price looks good and our confidence in the pick is high – we see a 78 % chance of it working. It would only go wrong if Wales manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Norway fail to find a single goal, both unlikely given the recent form and the statistical outlook.