How it turned out
We projected about 1.7 goals; the game finished with 3. We made Draw 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Al Minaa and 0.8 from Al Naft, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 0.8-0.9), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 39%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.95, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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