How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Draw 34%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Zakho and 1.0 from Al Talaba, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.1-1.0), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 36%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.00, which works out at about 33 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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