How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Draw 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al Mosul host Al Naft at home in the Iraq Stars League on 18 September. Al Mosul sit 11th out of 20 with eight points from seven games and a –2 goal difference. Al Naft are much higher, sitting 5th with twelve points and a +3 goal difference. The table shows Al Mosul just one place above Diyala and one below Al Minaa, while Al Naft sit one spot under Erbil and level with Al Shorta. Both teams are looking to improve their positions – Al Mosul hoping to climb out of the lower half and Al Naft aiming to keep pressure on the top spots. The match offers a chance for each side to gain three points, but the standings suggest a tight contest.
Al Mosul’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three league games they have not recorded a win, but the scores show they are still competitive. They lost 2-1 to an unnamed opponent, then drew 0-0 in the following match, and most recently fell 1-0 away. Across those three fixtures they have scored only two goals while conceding three. The run leaves them with a negative goal difference and a low scoring rate, indicating they have struggled to find the net.
Al Naft come into this game on a better run. Their last three results, newest first, are a 2-1 home win over Karbalaa, a 3-0 away loss to Al-Karma, and a 3-0 away victory against Al Minaa. In those three matches they have scored five goals and let in four. They kept one clean sheet in the win over Al Minaa and failed to score in the loss to Al-Karma. All three games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in the Karbalaa match. The team played only four days ago, so they have had a short turnaround before travelling to Al Mosul.
When the two clubs have met before the scorelines have been close, and the statistics for this encounter suggest a low-scoring affair. Both sides average around one goal each, and the chances of either side scoring at all are just above 60 percent. The probability of either side finding the net twice is under 30 percent. This points to a game that could be decided by a single goal or end without a winner. The balance of the numbers and the similar recent form make a draw a realistic outcome.
We pick a draw at 2.90. The price matches our view of a tightly contested match with few goals. A draw has a roughly 38 percent chance of happening, which fits the tight nature of the game. For the draw to fail, one side would need to break the deadlock early and keep the lead, or both teams would have to produce more than one goal each, which looks unlikely given the recent scoring patterns. If either team manages to score twice, the draw would be at risk, but the odds suggest staying with the draw is the sensible choice.
Recent results
Al-Mosul have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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