What to expect
Al Zawraa host Al-Gharraf at home in the Iraq Stars League on 17 September 2026. Al Zawraa sit second in a 20-team table with 15 points from seven games and a +10 goal difference. They are two points behind leaders Al-Karma and one point ahead of Newroz. Al-Gharraf are down in 19th place with five points and a –6 goal difference, sitting in the relegation zone. A win for Al-Gharraf would move them out of the drop spots, while Al Zawraa look to close the gap on the leaders and keep pressure on Newroz.
Al Zawraa have been in good form lately. In their last three matches they beat Al-Muthanna 3-1, then drew 2-2 with Duhok, and followed that with a 2-0 win over Al-Hikma. That run gives them six goals scored and only three conceded in the last three games, reinforcing their strong offensive record and solid defence.
Al-Gharraf have struggled to find consistency. Their recent results are a 1-0 loss to Al-Sinaa, a 2-2 draw with Al-Mansour, and most recently a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Al-Karbala. The loss to Al-Karbala was particularly harsh, with them failing to score and conceding three clean goals. It leaves them with just one point from their last three outings and a worrying lack of goals.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs, and the numbers we have suggest the same pattern will continue. Al Zawraa are expected to score about 1.5 goals while Al-Gharraf are projected to get only 0.6. The chance of Al Zawraa finding the net at all is high at 79 %, but the chance of them scoring twice or more drops to 47 %. Al-Gharraf’s chance to score is only 38 %, and they are unlikely to hit the net twice, with a 9 % probability. All this points to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Our pick is Al Zawraa to win. The price of 1.56 matches our own view of the game. We see a roughly 65 % chance of Al Zawraa coming out on top, which aligns with the 63 % chance we assign to the outcome. The price looks good for a side that is clearly stronger on the numbers and in better league position. For this pick to go wrong, Al-Gharraf would need to find a rare goal and hold on, or Al Zawraa would have to fail to score at all, both of which are low-probability events.
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