Karbalaa v Erbil: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Erbil to win 61%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Karbalaa host Erwin at home in the Iraq Stars League on 18 September 2026. Karbalaa sit 19th out of 20 with just five points from seven games and a -6 goal difference, trapped in the relegation zone. One place above them is Al Talaba, only a point clear, while Al-Gharraf sit just below. Erbil sit a comfortable fourth, also on seven games but with 14 points and a +6 goal difference. They sit level on points with Newroz above them and two points clear of Al Naft below. Both teams have a lot at stake – Karbalaa fight to climb out of the drop zone, while Erbil look to keep pressure on the leaders.

Karbalaa’s recent form has been poor. In their last three matches they lost 3-0 to Celtic, fell 4-1 at home to Kilmarnock and then suffered a 2-0 defeat to Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya. That string of three straight losses leaves them with no points from nine goals conceded and only one goal scored. The run adds up to a bleak picture, with the side struggling to find the net and leaking goals at will.

Erbil have been much steadier. Their last three outings produced a 2-1 win over Al-Zawraa, a 1-0 victory against Duhok and a 3-2 triumph over Al-Minaa. The most recent game, the 3-2 win over Al-Minaa, showed they can score freely while still keeping a decent defensive shape, netting three times and only allowing two. Those results give Erbil six points from nine goals for and five against, underlining a balanced attack and a solid defence.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce a fair number of goals, and the current expectations line up with that pattern. The goal forecasts suggest Karbalaa will score just under one goal on average, while Erbil are expected to find the net around 1.7 times. The odds of Karbalaa scoring at all sit at 49 per cent, with only a 15 per cent chance of two or more. Erbil, by contrast, have an 82 per cent chance to score and a 50 per cent chance to hit the net twice. The numbers point to a game with a few goals, likely favouring the visitors.

We back Erbil to win. The price of 1.58 matches our own reading of the match and looks good. Erbil are the stronger side on the numbers, and we see about a 61 per cent chance of them taking all three points. For our pick to go wrong, Karbalaa would need to find the net twice and keep a clean sheet, something that has not happened in their recent outings. If Karbalaa manage to tighten up defensively and score early, they could upset the odds, but the balance of evidence still leans heavily toward an Erbil victory.