How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al Shorta to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Al Shorta and 0.8 from Newroz, so Al Shorta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Shorta to win. Al Shorta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.8), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Al Shorta have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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