How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Talaba to win 58%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Karbalaa and 1.6 from Al Talaba, so Al Talaba come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Karbalaa come into this on two straight defeats. Al Talaba come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Talaba to win. Al Talaba shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.6), and we make them about 60% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Al Talaba have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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