How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al-Karma or Draw 82%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Al-Karma and 0.8 from Duhok, so Al-Karma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al-Karma or Draw. This covers Al-Karma or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Al-Karma have won three of the last four meetings.
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