Erbil v Ghaz Al-Shamal SC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Erbil or Draw 83%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.9 goals from Erbil and 0.7 from Ghaz Al-Shamal SC, so Erbil come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Erbil come into this on two straight defeats. Ghaz Al-Shamal SC come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Erbil or Draw. This covers Erbil or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.13, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.