How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Duhok to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Duhok host Karbalaa at home in the Iraq Stars League on 23 October 2026. Duhok sit mid-table in 10th place with 12 points from ten games and a +1 goal difference. One spot above them is Al Quwa Al Jawiya, level on points, while Diyala sit just below, also on 12 points. Karbalaa are down at the bottom, 20th of 20, with six points and a –10 goal difference, firmly in the relegation zone. One place above them is Naft Maysan, two points clear. The match could see Duhok pull away from the pack or Karbalaa try to climb out of the drop zone, but the stakes are far higher for the visitors.
Duhok have had a mixed run in their last four games. They lost 2-0 away to Al-Jolan SC, then bounced back with a 3-0 home win over Al Zawraa. After that they drew 1-1 away at Al Minaa and were beaten 3-2 away by Al Karkh. In those four matches Duhok scored six goals and let in six. They kept one clean sheet and failed to score in one game. Two of the four fixtures produced three or more goals, and both sides found the net in two of those games.
Karbalaa have struggled in the same period, going four games without a win. Their most recent result was a 2-1 home loss to Al-Gharraf, before a goalless draw away at Al Kahrabaa. Prior to that they fell 3-0 at home to Erbil and 2-1 away to Al Naft. Over those four matches Karbalaa have scored only two goals while conceding seven. They kept one clean sheet but failed to score in two games. Three of the four encounters featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with goals on both sides. Given the recent form – Duhok scoring six and conceding six in four games, Karbalaa scoring two and conceding seven – we expect a similar pattern this time. Duhok’s better defensive record and the fact that they have already beaten a side like Al Zawraa 3-0 suggest they will be the more solid side at home. Karbalaa’s inability to find the net regularly makes it unlikely they will turn the tie into a tight defensive battle.
We pick Duhok to win. The numbers show Duhok averaging 1.7 goals to Karbalaa’s 0.8, and we see a 60 % chance of a Duhok victory. The price of 1.52 is shorter than our own reading, which means it is a good deal for a side that should be able to score and keep a clean sheet. For the pick to go wrong, Karbalaa would need to find the net twice and Duhok would have to be shut out, something that has only happened once in the recent games for each side. All signs point to Duhok coming out on top.
Recent results
Duhok have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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