How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al Karkh or Draw 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Karkh host Al-Mosul at home in the Iraq Stars League on 23 October. Al Karkh sit 17th out of 20 with eight points from ten games and a –5 goal difference. One place above them is Al-Gharraf on ten points, while Al-Kahrabaa sit just below on eight. Al-Mosul are a little higher in the table, 15th with eleven points and the same –5 goal difference. They are level on points with Ghaz Al-Shamal SC above them and just one point ahead of Al-Gharraf below. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, so a point could be crucial for either side.
Al Karkh’s recent form has been mixed. In their last five matches they have won two, drawn one and lost two. The most recent result was a 1-1 draw away at Al Shorta. Before that they fell 3-2 away to Al-Karma, then turned the tide with a 3-2 home win over Naft Maysan. Another 3-2 victory at home followed against Duhok, and the run began with a 3-2 defeat away to Al Talaba. In those five games Al Karkh have scored eleven and let in eleven, with four games seeing three or more goals and both sides finding the net in each match.
Al-Mosul have struggled more sharply. Their last five outings produced one win and four defeats. The win came 1-0 away at Erbil. It was followed by a 3-0 home loss to Al Quwa Al Jawiya, a 1-0 home defeat to Al Naft, a 2-1 away loss to Zakho and a 3-0 away loss to Newroz. Across those five games they have managed only two goals while conceding nine. They kept a single clean sheet in the Erbil win and failed to score in three of the matches. Their recent road record stands at one win and two losses.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce several goals and both sides have usually scored. The pattern suggests an open contest rather than a tight defensive battle. Given Al Karkh’s slightly better scoring record in recent fixtures and the fact that both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs, we can expect another match with at least a couple of goals and chances for both sides to get on the scoresheet.
Our pick is Al Karkh or a draw at odds of 1.39. The price matches our view of a close game where Al Karkh are a little stronger but not dominant. We see a 75 % chance of this outcome being right. The bet works well because it protects us if the match ends level, while still rewarding a win for the home side. It would go wrong if Al Mosul manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Al Karkh fail to find the net at all. In those cases the price would not pay off.
Recent results
Al Karkh have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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