AL Julan v Al Kahrabaa prediction

What to expect

Al Julan host Al Kahrabaa in the Iraq Stars League on 23 October. Al Kahrabaa sit 18th out of 20 with eight points from ten games and a –5 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. One spot above them is Al Karkh, just a point clear, while Naft Maysan sit just below. A win for Al Kahrabaa could lift them out of the drop places, but a loss would leave them firmly stuck. In the statistical outlook Al Kahrabaa are the stronger side, with a slightly higher expected goal tally.

Al Julan have not been mentioned in recent results, so we cannot add any fresh form to the picture. Their position in the table is not given, but the numbers suggest they are likely to be competitive at home. The chance they will find the net is 61 percent, and there is a 27 percent chance they will score twice or more. That gives us a baseline that they can be dangerous in front of goal.

Al Kahrabaa’s last four outings have been mixed. They beat Al Minaa 2-1 at home, then lost 2-0 away to Al Shorta, drew 0-0 with Karbalaa at home and most recently fell 1-0 to Al Talaba at home. In those four games they have scored only two goals while conceding four. They kept one clean sheet, failed to score in three matches and have gone three games without a win. Their most recent match, the 1-0 loss to Al Talaba, showed they can be shut out and struggle to create chances.

We back Al Kahrabaa or a draw. The price of 1.43 sits close to our own reading of the game and gives a wider safety net for the lean. The odds look good for a result that does not require a full-time win. For our pick to go wrong Al Kahrabaa would need to be shut out again while Al Julan score at least once, or the game finish with Al Kahrabaa losing outright. That would require Al Julan to be more clinical than the numbers suggest. We feel the price is sensible and the chance of our pick succeeding is about 69 percent.