How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Al Shorta or Draw 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Zawraa host Al Shorta in the Iraq Stars League on 23 October 2026. Al Zawraa sit fourth in the table with 18 points from ten games and a +8 goal difference. They are three points behind Newroz in third place and level on points with Erbil below them. Al Shorta are sixth with 17 points and a +5 goal difference, one point behind Erbil and three points ahead of Al-Jolan SC. Both teams are close enough that a win could move either side up the table, while a draw would keep the current order largely intact. The numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring contest.
Al Zawraa have played four matches in their recent run, winning two and losing two. Their most recent game was a 1-0 defeat away at Ghaz Al-Shamal SC, followed by a 3-0 loss away to Duhok. Before those setbacks they beat Al-Gharraf 2-0 at home and won 1-0 away at Al Quwa Al Jawiya. In these four games they have scored three goals and let in four. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to find the net in two matches. Only one of the four games produced three or more goals, and neither side scored in that match.
Al Shorta arrive unbeaten from their last six outings, with three wins and three draws. Their latest result was a 1-1 draw at home against Al Karkh. Prior to that they edged East Bengal FC 3-2 away, then held Al Talaba 0-0 away. At home they beat Al Kahrabaa 2-0, defeated Al-Seeb 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Ghaz Al-Shamal SC. Over these six games they have scored seven and conceded three, keeping four clean sheets while failing to score in two matches. Only one game featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of the six fixtures.
When the two clubs have met before the scorelines have been close, and the current statistics point to another narrow affair. Both sides have a similar chance of scoring – about 60 % for Al Zawraa and 66 % for Al Shorta – and the likelihood of either side finding the net twice is low. The expected total of two goals matches the pattern of a tight game with few chances. Given the recent form, Al Shorta’s unbeaten run and slightly better scoring record give them a small edge, but Al Zawraa’s home advantage and comparable defensive record mean a draw is very possible.
We back Al Shorta or a draw at 1.41. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and offers a wider safety net for the lean. The pick works because Al Shorta have been harder to beat recently and have scored more, yet the match is expected to stay low-scoring and could easily finish level. It would go wrong if Al Zawraa find a second clean sheet and manage a win, or if the game opens up and produces three or more goals, breaking the tight pattern we anticipate.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
