How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Beitar Jerusalem to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Beitar Jerusalem and 1.3 from Maccabi Netanya, so Beitar Jerusalem come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Beitar Jerusalem to win. Beitar Jerusalem are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.3), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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