How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Hapoel Tel Aviv to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Hapoel Haifa and 1.3 from Hapoel Tel Aviv, so Hapoel Tel Aviv come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv to win. Hapoel Tel Aviv shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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