How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Hapoel Petah Tikva to win 37%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.0 from Hapoel Jerusalem FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hapoel Petah Tikva to win. Hapoel Petah Tikva are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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