How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win 37%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 1.3 from Ironi Tiberias, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win. Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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