How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Maccabi Tel Aviv (Draw No Bet) 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The match looks fairly even on paper, but the numbers give Maccabi Tel Aviv a slight edge. Both teams have similar recent records – each has one win, one draw and three losses in their last five league games – so neither is on a hot streak. The goal expectations of 2.0 for Tel Aviv and 1.5 for Haifa suggest an open game with chances at both ends rather than a tight, defensive battle.
Looking back, the two sides have been evenly matched in their recent outings, each picking up the same mix of results. That pattern points to a game that could swing either way, but the slight goal advantage for Tel Aviv hints they may find the net a little more often. The expectation of about three and a half goals in total reinforces the idea of an open contest rather than a cagey draw.
We back Maccabi Tel Aviv with a Draw No Bet selection. The price of 1.35 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. Our confidence in this outcome is about 67 % – roughly two chances out of three that Tel Aviv will avoid defeat.
For our view to be wrong, Haifa would need to keep a clean sheet and score at least once, turning the game into a loss for Tel Aviv. If the match ends level, our stake is returned, so only a Tel Aviv defeat would hurt. We hold the opinion fairly strongly, given the slight goal edge and the price offered.
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