How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Kashima Antlers to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Kashima Antlers and 0.8 from Nagoya Grampus, so Kashima Antlers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Kashima Antlers come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kashima Antlers to win. Kashima Antlers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Nagoya Grampus only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 63%: a lean, not a lock.
