How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Yokohama F. Marinos (Draw No Bet) 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.4 from Yokohama F. Marinos, so Yokohama F. Marinos come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Yokohama F. Marinos (Draw No Bet). Yokohama F. Marinos are favoured here (xG 1.2-1.4), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Yokohama F. Marinos defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Shimizu S-Pulse win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
