How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vissel Kobe and 0.8 from FC Tokyo, so Vissel Kobe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Vissel Kobe (Draw No Bet). Vissel Kobe are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Vissel Kobe defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
FC Tokyo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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