What to expect
We expect about 2.7 goals from Kawasaki Frontale and 1.1 from Chiba, so Kawasaki Frontale come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Kawasaki Frontale come into this on two straight draws. Chiba come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kawasaki Frontale to win. Kawasaki Frontale are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-1.1), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Chiba only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 61% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
