How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kashiwa Reysol (Draw No Bet) 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tilted toward Kashiwa Reysol. Our goal expectations are 0.9 for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.5 for Kashiwa, so we expect about two and a half goals in total. The numbers suggest a modest scoring game, not a goal-fest, and Kashiwa should have the edge throughout.
Recent results underline the gap between the sides. Shimizu have managed only one win in their last five league matches and are coming in on two straight defeats. Kashiwa, on the other hand, have won all five of their recent games. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Kashiwa have won four times with one draw, and those games have averaged two goals. The most recent encounter ended 2-0 to Kashiwa.
We pick Kashiwa Reysol on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.45 is longer than what we feel the game is worth, which makes the selection attractive. If Kashiwa win, the bet pays out; if the match ends level we get our stake back, so only a loss would hurt us.
The pick would go wrong if Shimizu manage to hold Kashiwa to a draw or pull off a surprise win. That would require a defensive collapse from Kashiwa or a sudden spark from the home side. We are fairly confident, seeing a 75 % chance of success, but we acknowledge that football can be unpredictable.
Recent meetings
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