What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.4 from Kashiwa Reysol, so Kashiwa Reysol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shimizu S-Pulse come into this on three straight defeats. Kashiwa Reysol come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 54%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 54%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
