What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Mito and 1.5 from Machida, so Machida come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Machida come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Machida to win. Machida shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Mito to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 52%.
