How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks pretty even. Our goal expectations are 1.6 for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.4 for FC Tokyo, so there is almost nothing separating them on paper. That points to an open match with chances at both ends, but no side looks clearly stronger.
Looking at recent form, V-Varen Nagasaki have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league games. FC Tokyo have been a little sharper, with three wins, one draw and one loss in the same span and they come in on three straight victories. In their last two meetings the teams have split the wins and the games have produced an average of four goals. The most recent encounter in 2018 ended 1-0 to V-Varen Nagasaki.
We think the safest bet is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.36 matches our feeling about the match. The expected total of about 2.6 goals (around 1.5 for Nagasaki and 1.1 for Tokyo) means the game will probably stay below the 3.5-goal line about three-quarters of the time.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden flood of goals – both sides scoring at least two each, or a single high-scoring burst. That would be unlikely given the recent low-scoring trend in their head-to-head games. We are fairly confident in our view and hold it strongly.
Recent meetings
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